LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark | +5.73 | 11-3 | 7.2 | +3.8 | 4-0 | ||
| 2 | Randy | +4.84 | 10-4 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 5-1 | ||
| 3 | Stephanie | +3.27 | 10-4 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 2-0 | ||
| 4 | Brabson | +2.21 | 11-3 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 0-1 | ||
| 5 | Vinny | +1.14 | 7-7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 3-1 | ||
| 6 | Cody | -0.87 | 7-7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 0-1 | ||
| 7 | Chris T | -1.20 | 6-8 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 1-2 | ||
| 8 | Eric | -2.18 | 5-9 | 6.7 | -1.6 | 2-3 | ||
| 9 | Luca | -2.25 | 6-8 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 1-3 | ||
| 10 | John | -2.75 | 3-11 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 0-0 | ||
| 11 | Rafael | -2.90 | 4-10 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 1-3 | ||
| 12 | Joey | -4.72 | 4-10 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 0-4 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark | 7.2 | 11 | +3.8 |
| Randy | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Stephanie | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Brabson | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Vinny | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 |
| Cody | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Chris T | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Eric | 6.7 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Luca | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 |
| John | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Rafael | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 |
| Joey | 6.7 | 4 | -2.7 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark | 4 | 0 | 100% | +4 |
| Randy | 5 | 1 | 83% | +4 |
| Stephanie | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Brabson | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Vinny | 3 | 1 | 75% | +2 |
| Cody | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Chris T | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Eric | 2 | 3 | 40% | -1 |
| Luca | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| John | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Rafael | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Joey | 0 | 4 | 0% | -4 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Mark | 90-53 | 62.9% |
| Randy | 83-60 | 58.0% |
| Stephanie | 84-59 | 58.7% |
| Brabson | 108-35 | 75.5% |
| Vinny | 70-73 | 49.0% |
| Cody | 78-65 | 54.5% |
| Chris T | 54-89 | 37.8% |
| Eric | 68-75 | 47.6% |
| Luca | 79-64 | 55.2% |
| John | 45-98 | 31.5% |
| Rafael | 41-102 | 28.7% |
| Joey | 58-85 | 40.6% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark | 120.1 | 117.3 | Average |
| Randy | 121.3 | 117.3 | Average |
| Stephanie | 120.4 | 117.3 | Average |
| Brabson | 110.4 | 117.3 | Easy |
| Vinny | 112.4 | 117.3 | Average |
| Cody | 116.1 | 117.3 | Average |
| Chris T | 113.1 | 117.3 | Average |
| Eric | 119.8 | 117.3 | Average |
| Luca | 119.6 | 117.3 | Average |
| John | 125.8 | 117.3 | Hard |
| Rafael | 112.2 | 117.3 | Easy |
| Joey | 116.6 | 117.3 | Average |