LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie | +3.49 | 9-4 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 3-0 | ||
| 2 | Eric | +3.21 | 11-2 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 1-0 | ||
| 3 | Joey | +2.26 | 9-4 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 2-1 | ||
| 4 | Chris T | +1.05 | 8-5 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 1-1 | ||
| 5 | Brabson | +0.68 | 8-5 | 7.3 | +0.8 | 1-1 | ||
| 6 | Luca | +0.61 | 8-5 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 0-1 | ||
| 7 | Rafael | +0.30 | 5-8 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 2-0 | ||
| 8 | Cody | -0.42 | 5-8 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 2-1 | ||
| 9 | Max | -0.65 | 7-6 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 1-3 | ||
| 10 | Vinny | -1.97 | 3-10 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 1-1 | ||
| 11 | Chris V | -3.89 | 3-10 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 0-2 | ||
| 12 | Randy | -4.32 | 2-11 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 0-3 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Eric | 8.5 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Joey | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 |
| Chris T | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Brabson | 7.3 | 8 | +0.8 |
| Luca | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Rafael | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Cody | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 |
| Max | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Vinny | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Chris V | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Randy | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie | 3 | 0 | 100% | +3 |
| Eric | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Joey | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Chris T | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Brabson | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Luca | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Rafael | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Cody | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Max | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Vinny | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Chris V | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
| Randy | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Stephanie | 84-59 | 58.7% |
| Eric | 104-39 | 72.7% |
| Joey | 89-54 | 62.2% |
| Chris T | 81-62 | 56.6% |
| Brabson | 106-37 | 74.1% |
| Luca | 76-67 | 53.1% |
| Rafael | 57-86 | 39.9% |
| Cody | 47-96 | 32.9% |
| Max | 76-67 | 53.1% |
| Vinny | 30-113 | 21.0% |
| Chris V | 59-84 | 41.3% |
| Randy | 49-94 | 34.3% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie | 108.8 | 114.5 | Easy |
| Eric | 99.0 | 114.5 | Easy |
| Joey | 114.3 | 114.5 | Average |
| Chris T | 116.9 | 114.5 | Average |
| Brabson | 119.8 | 114.5 | Hard |
| Luca | 112.0 | 114.5 | Average |
| Rafael | 121.3 | 114.5 | Hard |
| Cody | 110.0 | 114.5 | Average |
| Max | 114.1 | 114.5 | Average |
| Vinny | 114.1 | 114.5 | Average |
| Chris V | 119.1 | 114.5 | Average |
| Randy | 124.4 | 114.5 | Hard |