LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris T | +3.86 | 10-3 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 3-1 | ||
| 2 | John | +2.78 | 10-3 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 1-0 | ||
| 3 | Luca | +1.66 | 7-6 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 3-1 | ||
| 4 | Max | +0.78 | 7-6 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 3-2 | ||
| 5 | Stephanie | +0.55 | 5-8 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 2-0 | ||
| 6 | Brabson | +0.30 | 7-6 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 1-1 | ||
| 7 | Vinny | +0.26 | 7-6 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 2-2 | ||
| 8 | Eric | +0.04 | 7-6 | 6.5 | +0.6 | 1-2 | ||
| 9 | Cody | -0.99 | 5-8 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 1-1 | ||
| 10 | Rafael | -2.68 | 5-8 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 1-3 | ||
| 11 | Joey | -3.14 | 5-8 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 0-3 | ||
| 12 | Randy | -3.39 | 3-10 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 0-2 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 |
| John | 7.9 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Luca | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Max | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 |
| Stephanie | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 |
| Brabson | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 |
| Vinny | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Eric | 6.5 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Cody | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 |
| Rafael | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 |
| Joey | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Randy | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 3 | 1 | 75% | +2 |
| John | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Luca | 3 | 1 | 75% | +2 |
| Max | 3 | 2 | 60% | +1 |
| Stephanie | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Brabson | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Vinny | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Eric | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Cody | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Rafael | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Joey | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
| Randy | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 94-49 | 65.7% |
| John | 85-58 | 59.4% |
| Luca | 60-83 | 42.0% |
| Max | 90-53 | 62.9% |
| Stephanie | 59-84 | 41.3% |
| Brabson | 54-89 | 37.8% |
| Vinny | 89-54 | 62.2% |
| Eric | 73-70 | 51.0% |
| Cody | 59-84 | 41.3% |
| Rafael | 56-87 | 39.2% |
| Joey | 87-56 | 60.8% |
| Randy | 52-91 | 36.4% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 120.5 | 121.9 | Average |
| John | 111.2 | 121.9 | Easy |
| Luca | 118.3 | 121.9 | Average |
| Max | 128.0 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Stephanie | 133.6 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Brabson | 109.7 | 121.9 | Easy |
| Vinny | 124.3 | 121.9 | Average |
| Eric | 122.9 | 121.9 | Average |
| Cody | 125.7 | 121.9 | Average |
| Rafael | 111.4 | 121.9 | Easy |
| Joey | 130.4 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Randy | 127.2 | 121.9 | Hard |