LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael | +4.30 | 10-3 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 4-1 | ||
| 2 | Luca | +2.86 | 10-3 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 2-1 | ||
| 3 | Chris T | +2.76 | 8-5 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 3-0 | ||
| 4 | Max | +1.77 | 9-4 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 1-1 | ||
| 5 | Eric | +0.80 | 7-6 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 1-0 | ||
| 6 | Stephanie | +0.26 | 6-7 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 1-0 | ||
| 7 | Brabson | -0.23 | 7-6 | 6.8 | +0.3 | 0-1 | ||
| 8 | Joey | -0.48 | 8-5 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 1-3 | ||
| 9 | Chris V | -1.50 | 4-9 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 1-2 | ||
| 10 | Cody | -2.08 | 3-10 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 1-1 | ||
| 11 | Vinny | -3.67 | 3-10 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 0-2 | ||
| 12 | Randy | -4.55 | 3-10 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 0-3 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | 7.3 | 10 | +2.7 |
| Luca | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Chris T | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| Max | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Eric | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Stephanie | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Brabson | 6.8 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Joey | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Chris V | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 |
| Cody | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Vinny | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Randy | 6.1 | 3 | -3.1 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | 4 | 1 | 80% | +3 |
| Luca | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Chris T | 3 | 0 | 100% | +3 |
| Max | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Eric | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Stephanie | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Brabson | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Joey | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Chris V | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Cody | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Vinny | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
| Randy | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael | 89-54 | 62.2% |
| Luca | 103-40 | 72.0% |
| Chris T | 74-68-1 | 51.7% |
| Max | 83-60 | 58.0% |
| Eric | 84-59 | 58.7% |
| Stephanie | 60-83 | 42.0% |
| Brabson | 80-62-1 | 55.9% |
| Joey | 93-50 | 65.0% |
| Chris V | 46-97 | 32.2% |
| Cody | 35-108 | 24.5% |
| Vinny | 62-81 | 43.4% |
| Randy | 48-95 | 33.6% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | 122.5 | 126.8 | Average |
| Luca | 123.2 | 126.8 | Average |
| Chris T | 127.8 | 126.8 | Average |
| Max | 116.8 | 126.8 | Easy |
| Eric | 130.7 | 126.8 | Average |
| Stephanie | 124.0 | 126.8 | Average |
| Brabson | 125.2 | 126.8 | Average |
| Joey | 123.8 | 126.8 | Average |
| Chris V | 133.5 | 126.8 | Hard |
| Cody | 132.0 | 126.8 | Hard |
| Vinny | 139.0 | 126.8 | Hard |
| Randy | 123.6 | 126.8 | Average |