LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John | +2.69 | 9-5 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 2-0 | ||
| 2 | Cody | +1.83 | 10-4 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 1-1 | ||
| 3 | Stephanie | +1.51 | 8-6 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 3-2 | ||
| 4 | Vinny | +0.70 | 7-7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 2-2 | ||
| 5 | Max | +0.64 | 8-6 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 1-1 | ||
| 6 | Eric | +0.39 | 8-6 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 1-1 | ||
| 7 | Brabson | -0.17 | 7-7 | 7.2 | -0.1 | 1-1 | ||
| 8 | Rafael | -0.84 | 8-6 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 1-3 | ||
| 9 | Randy | -1.33 | 5-9 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 2-2 | ||
| 10 | Joey | -1.68 | 3-11 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 3-1 | ||
| 11 | Luca | -1.76 | 5-9 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 0-1 | ||
| 12 | Chris T | -1.88 | 6-8 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 1-3 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| John | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Cody | 8.3 | 10 | +1.7 |
| Stephanie | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Vinny | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Max | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| Eric | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Brabson | 7.2 | 7 | -0.1 |
| Rafael | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Randy | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 |
| Joey | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Luca | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 |
| Chris T | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Cody | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Stephanie | 3 | 2 | 60% | +1 |
| Vinny | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Max | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Eric | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Brabson | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Rafael | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Randy | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Joey | 3 | 1 | 75% | +2 |
| Luca | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Chris T | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| John | 65-78 | 45.5% |
| Cody | 96-47 | 67.1% |
| Stephanie | 74-69 | 51.7% |
| Vinny | 53-90 | 37.1% |
| Max | 87-56 | 60.8% |
| Eric | 88-55 | 61.5% |
| Brabson | 83-60 | 58.0% |
| Rafael | 81-62 | 56.6% |
| Randy | 62-81 | 43.4% |
| Joey | 44-99 | 30.8% |
| Luca | 55-88 | 38.5% |
| Chris T | 70-73 | 49.0% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| John | 108.8 | 118.0 | Easy |
| Cody | 108.5 | 118.0 | Easy |
| Stephanie | 115.8 | 118.0 | Average |
| Vinny | 124.9 | 118.0 | Hard |
| Max | 121.4 | 118.0 | Average |
| Eric | 119.4 | 118.0 | Average |
| Brabson | 119.9 | 118.0 | Average |
| Rafael | 110.5 | 118.0 | Easy |
| Randy | 122.5 | 118.0 | Average |
| Joey | 126.2 | 118.0 | Hard |
| Luca | 120.3 | 118.0 | Average |
| Chris T | 118.3 | 118.0 | Average |