LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brabson | +3.24 | 9-4 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 3-0 | ||
| 2 | Max | +2.14 | 9-4 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 1-0 | ||
| 3 | Randy | +1.89 | 8-5 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 2-1 | ||
| 4 | Eric | +1.25 | 8-5 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 3-3 | ||
| 5 | Joey | +1.21 | 6-7 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 2-0 | ||
| 6 | Stephanie | +0.36 | 8-5 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 0-1 | ||
| 7 | Luca | +0.29 | 8-5 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 1-2 | ||
| 8 | Chris T | -1.47 | 6-7 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 0-2 | ||
| 9 | Rafael | -1.65 | 4-9 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 2-1 | ||
| 10 | Cody | -1.65 | 6-7 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 1-3 | ||
| 11 | Vinny | -2.18 | 3-10 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 0-0 | ||
| 12 | Chris V | -3.16 | 3-10 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 1-3 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 |
| Max | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Randy | 6.6 | 8 | +1.4 |
| Eric | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| Joey | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Stephanie | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| Luca | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| Chris T | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Rafael | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 |
| Cody | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Vinny | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 |
| Chris V | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 3 | 0 | 100% | +3 |
| Max | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Randy | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Eric | 3 | 3 | 50% | 0 |
| Joey | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Stephanie | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Luca | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Chris T | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
| Rafael | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Cody | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Vinny | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Chris V | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 103-40 | 72.0% |
| Max | 91-52 | 63.6% |
| Randy | 76-67 | 53.1% |
| Eric | 86-57 | 60.1% |
| Joey | 68-75 | 47.6% |
| Stephanie | 87-56 | 60.8% |
| Luca | 83-60 | 58.0% |
| Chris T | 79-64 | 55.2% |
| Rafael | 68-75 | 47.6% |
| Cody | 56-87 | 39.2% |
| Vinny | 32-111 | 22.4% |
| Chris V | 29-114 | 20.3% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 125.3 | 120.0 | Hard |
| Max | 114.7 | 120.0 | Easy |
| Randy | 120.2 | 120.0 | Average |
| Eric | 121.5 | 120.0 | Average |
| Joey | 127.7 | 120.0 | Hard |
| Stephanie | 113.6 | 120.0 | Easy |
| Luca | 119.7 | 120.0 | Average |
| Chris T | 121.6 | 120.0 | Average |
| Rafael | 126.5 | 120.0 | Hard |
| Cody | 110.5 | 120.0 | Easy |
| Vinny | 117.7 | 120.0 | Average |
| Chris V | 121.4 | 120.0 | Average |