LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris T | +4.61 | 11-2 | 7.6 | +3.4 | 2-0 | ||
| 2 | Brabson | +3.62 | 11-2 | 8.1 | +2.9 | 1-0 | ||
| 3 | Joey | +1.59 | 8-5 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 2-1 | ||
| 4 | Randy | +0.68 | 7-6 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 3-2 | ||
| 5 | Max | +0.46 | 6-7 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 1-0 | ||
| 6 | Rafael | +0.29 | 7-6 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 1-1 | ||
| 7 | Eric | -1.07 | 7-6 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 1-3 | ||
| 8 | Chris V | -1.23 | 4-9 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 1-1 | ||
| 9 | Vinny | -1.84 | 5-8 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 1-2 | ||
| 10 | Cody | -2.24 | 4-9 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 0-1 | ||
| 11 | Luca | -2.38 | 4-9 | 5.8 | -1.9 | 1-2 | ||
| 12 | Stephanie | -2.56 | 4-9 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 1-2 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 7.6 | 11 | +3.4 |
| Brabson | 8.1 | 11 | +2.9 |
| Joey | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Randy | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 |
| Max | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 |
| Rafael | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Eric | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| Chris V | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Vinny | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| Cody | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 |
| Luca | 5.8 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Stephanie | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Brabson | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Joey | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Randy | 3 | 2 | 60% | +1 |
| Max | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Rafael | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Eric | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Chris V | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Vinny | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Cody | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Luca | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Stephanie | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 74-69 | 51.7% |
| Brabson | 90-53 | 62.9% |
| Joey | 100-43 | 69.9% |
| Randy | 75-67-1 | 52.4% |
| Max | 75-68 | 52.4% |
| Rafael | 71-72 | 49.7% |
| Eric | 85-58 | 59.4% |
| Chris V | 47-96 | 32.9% |
| Vinny | 61-81-1 | 42.7% |
| Cody | 58-85 | 40.6% |
| Luca | 57-86 | 39.9% |
| Stephanie | 64-79 | 44.8% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 102.4 | 119.7 | Easy |
| Brabson | 103.2 | 119.7 | Easy |
| Joey | 126.2 | 119.7 | Hard |
| Randy | 116.8 | 119.7 | Average |
| Max | 129.4 | 119.7 | Hard |
| Rafael | 117.5 | 119.7 | Average |
| Eric | 120.7 | 119.7 | Average |
| Chris V | 128.1 | 119.7 | Hard |
| Vinny | 116.4 | 119.7 | Average |
| Cody | 129.6 | 119.7 | Hard |
| Luca | 122.3 | 119.7 | Average |
| Stephanie | 123.3 | 119.7 | Average |