LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brabson | +5.83 | 12-1 | 7.8 | +4.2 | 4-1 | ||
| 2 | Vinny | +2.32 | 10-3 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 1-1 | ||
| 3 | Rafael | +2.02 | 7-7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 3-0 | ||
| 4 | Cody | +1.73 | 8-5 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 3-2 | ||
| 5 | Luca | +1.71 | 8-6 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 2-0 | ||
| 6 | John | -0.07 | 6-8 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 1-1 | ||
| 7 | Randy | -0.50 | 7-7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 0-1 | ||
| 8 | Stephanie | -0.98 | 6-8 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 1-2 | ||
| 9 | Eric | -2.06 | 5-8 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 1-3 | ||
| 10 | Joey | -2.90 | 4-10 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 1-2 | ||
| 11 | Chris T | -3.27 | 4-10 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 1-2 | ||
| 12 | Max | -3.62 | 5-9 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 0-3 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 7.8 | 12 | +4.2 |
| Vinny | 7.9 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Rafael | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Cody | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Luca | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| John | 6.0 | 6 | +0.0 |
| Randy | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 |
| Stephanie | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Eric | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 |
| Joey | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Chris T | 6.7 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Max | 7.2 | 5 | -2.2 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 4 | 1 | 80% | +3 |
| Vinny | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Rafael | 3 | 0 | 100% | +3 |
| Cody | 3 | 2 | 60% | +1 |
| Luca | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| John | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Randy | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Stephanie | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Eric | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Joey | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Chris T | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Max | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 96-46-1 | 67.1% |
| Vinny | 71-71-1 | 49.7% |
| Rafael | 64-79 | 44.8% |
| Cody | 78-64-1 | 54.5% |
| Luca | 81-62 | 56.6% |
| John | 60-83 | 42.0% |
| Randy | 77-66 | 53.8% |
| Stephanie | 59-84 | 41.3% |
| Eric | 77-65-1 | 53.8% |
| Joey | 65-78 | 45.5% |
| Chris T | 70-73 | 49.0% |
| Max | 58-85 | 40.6% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brabson | 111.3 | 121.9 | Easy |
| Vinny | 107.0 | 121.9 | Easy |
| Rafael | 127.1 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Cody | 121.0 | 121.9 | Average |
| Luca | 122.3 | 121.9 | Average |
| John | 128.1 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Randy | 127.2 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Stephanie | 120.2 | 121.9 | Average |
| Eric | 128.7 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Joey | 128.0 | 121.9 | Hard |
| Chris T | 124.6 | 121.9 | Average |
| Max | 116.9 | 121.9 | Easy |