LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinny | +3.32 | 9-5 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 4-1 | ||
| 2 | Joey | +2.90 | 9-5 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 4-2 | ||
| 3 | Luca | +2.59 | 9-5 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 2-0 | ||
| 4 | Eric | +1.91 | 8-6 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 3-2 | ||
| 5 | Rafael | +0.86 | 8-6 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 3-3 | ||
| 6 | Randy | +0.39 | 7-7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 2-1 | ||
| 7 | Brabson | +0.34 | 7-7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 2-1 | ||
| 8 | Max | -0.22 | 7-7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 2-2 | ||
| 9 | Stephanie | -1.15 | 7-7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 1-3 | ||
| 10 | Cody | -2.49 | 5-9 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 1-3 | ||
| 11 | John | -2.65 | 4-10 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 2-2 | ||
| 12 | Chris T | -5.81 | 4-10 | 6.9 | -2.9 | 0-6 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Joey | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Luca | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Eric | 6.6 | 8 | +1.4 |
| Rafael | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| Randy | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| Brabson | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Max | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Stephanie | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Cody | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| John | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 |
| Chris T | 6.9 | 4 | -2.9 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny | 4 | 1 | 80% | +3 |
| Joey | 4 | 2 | 67% | +2 |
| Luca | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Eric | 3 | 2 | 60% | +1 |
| Rafael | 3 | 3 | 50% | 0 |
| Randy | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Brabson | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Max | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Stephanie | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Cody | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| John | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Chris T | 0 | 6 | 0% | -6 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Vinny | 86-57 | 60.1% |
| Joey | 77-65-1 | 53.8% |
| Luca | 86-57 | 60.1% |
| Eric | 79-64 | 55.2% |
| Rafael | 58-85 | 40.6% |
| Randy | 67-76 | 46.9% |
| Brabson | 70-73 | 49.0% |
| Max | 82-61 | 57.3% |
| Stephanie | 66-77 | 46.2% |
| Cody | 57-85-1 | 39.9% |
| John | 72-71 | 50.3% |
| Chris T | 57-86 | 39.9% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny | 125.1 | 122.2 | Average |
| Joey | 123.3 | 122.2 | Average |
| Luca | 120.7 | 122.2 | Average |
| Eric | 124.2 | 122.2 | Average |
| Rafael | 115.8 | 122.2 | Easy |
| Randy | 126.1 | 122.2 | Average |
| Brabson | 121.3 | 122.2 | Average |
| Max | 123.7 | 122.2 | Average |
| Stephanie | 117.3 | 122.2 | Average |
| Cody | 123.8 | 122.2 | Average |
| John | 127.1 | 122.2 | Average |
| Chris T | 117.3 | 122.2 | Average |