LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris T | +3.32 | 10-3 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 2-1 | ||
| 2 | Randy | +1.37 | 8-5 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 1-1 | ||
| 3 | Joey | +0.98 | 8-5 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 3-3 | ||
| 4 | Cody | +0.59 | 8-5 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 1-1 | ||
| 5 | Eric | +0.55 | 7-6 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 2-1 | ||
| 6 | Stephanie | +0.41 | 7-6 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 1-1 | ||
| 7 | Vinny | +0.38 | 6-7 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 2-1 | ||
| 8 | Brabson | -0.13 | 7-6 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 1-2 | ||
| 9 | Luca | -1.31 | 6-7 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 1-2 | ||
| 10 | Chris V | -1.56 | 4-9 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 1-1 | ||
| 11 | Max | -1.84 | 6-7 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 2-4 | ||
| 12 | Rafael | -2.71 | 1-12 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 1-0 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 |
| Randy | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| Joey | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Cody | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Eric | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 |
| Stephanie | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 |
| Vinny | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Brabson | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 |
| Luca | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Chris V | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 |
| Max | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Rafael | 4.0 | 1 | -3.0 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Randy | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Joey | 3 | 3 | 50% | 0 |
| Cody | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Eric | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Stephanie | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Vinny | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Brabson | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Luca | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Chris V | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Max | 2 | 4 | 33% | -2 |
| Rafael | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 92-51 | 64.3% |
| Randy | 65-78 | 45.5% |
| Joey | 89-54 | 62.2% |
| Cody | 88-55 | 61.5% |
| Eric | 80-63 | 55.9% |
| Stephanie | 77-66 | 53.8% |
| Vinny | 58-85 | 40.6% |
| Brabson | 75-68 | 52.4% |
| Luca | 83-60 | 58.0% |
| Chris V | 42-101 | 29.4% |
| Max | 79-64 | 55.2% |
| Rafael | 30-113 | 21.0% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 117.4 | 118.3 | Average |
| Randy | 115.9 | 118.3 | Average |
| Joey | 119.1 | 118.3 | Average |
| Cody | 109.8 | 118.3 | Easy |
| Eric | 120.3 | 118.3 | Average |
| Stephanie | 116.1 | 118.3 | Average |
| Vinny | 113.1 | 118.3 | Easy |
| Brabson | 121.5 | 118.3 | Average |
| Luca | 116.1 | 118.3 | Average |
| Chris V | 114.2 | 118.3 | Average |
| Max | 119.3 | 118.3 | Average |
| Rafael | 136.9 | 118.3 | Hard |