LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris T | +3.30 | 9-4 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 2-0 | ||
| 2 | Rafael | +3.07 | 9-4 | 7.0 | +2.0 | 3-1 | ||
| 3 | Max | +2.20 | 9-4 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 2-1 | ||
| 4 | Stephanie | +1.44 | 9-4 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 2-3 | ||
| 5 | Joey | +0.72 | 7-6 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 3-2 | ||
| 6 | Brabson | +0.12 | 6-7 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 2-1 | ||
| 7 | Eric | -0.20 | 6-7 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 1-1 | ||
| 8 | Cody | -0.43 | 5-8 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 1-0 | ||
| 9 | Chris V | -0.67 | 4-9 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 1-0 | ||
| 10 | Vinny | -1.97 | 5-8 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 1-2 | ||
| 11 | Luca | -3.42 | 4-9 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 0-3 | ||
| 12 | Randy | -4.00 | 5-8 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 0-4 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 |
| Rafael | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Max | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 |
| Stephanie | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Joey | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Brabson | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Eric | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Cody | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 |
| Chris V | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Vinny | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Luca | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Randy | 7.0 | 5 | -2.0 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Rafael | 3 | 1 | 75% | +2 |
| Max | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Stephanie | 2 | 3 | 40% | -1 |
| Joey | 3 | 2 | 60% | +1 |
| Brabson | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Eric | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Cody | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Chris V | 1 | 0 | 100% | +1 |
| Vinny | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Luca | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
| Randy | 0 | 4 | 0% | -4 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 81-62 | 56.6% |
| Rafael | 76-67 | 53.1% |
| Max | 97-46 | 67.8% |
| Stephanie | 85-58 | 59.4% |
| Joey | 100-43 | 69.9% |
| Brabson | 67-76 | 46.9% |
| Eric | 61-82 | 42.7% |
| Cody | 56-87 | 39.2% |
| Chris V | 35-108 | 24.5% |
| Vinny | 65-78 | 45.5% |
| Luca | 45-98 | 31.5% |
| Randy | 90-53 | 62.9% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris T | 119.5 | 120.1 | Average |
| Rafael | 114.9 | 120.1 | Easy |
| Max | 120.0 | 120.1 | Average |
| Stephanie | 114.9 | 120.1 | Easy |
| Joey | 129.5 | 120.1 | Hard |
| Brabson | 122.9 | 120.1 | Average |
| Eric | 117.4 | 120.1 | Average |
| Cody | 120.6 | 120.1 | Average |
| Chris V | 123.8 | 120.1 | Average |
| Vinny | 120.6 | 120.1 | Average |
| Luca | 119.0 | 120.1 | Average |
| Randy | 117.5 | 120.1 | Average |