LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luca | +2.52 | 8-5 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 2-0 | ||
| 2 | John | +2.17 | 7-6 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 2-0 | ||
| 3 | Cody | +1.88 | 8-5 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 2-1 | ||
| 4 | Chris T | +0.37 | 7-6 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 2-2 | ||
| 5 | Max | 0.00 | 7-6 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0-0 | ||
| 6 | Rafael | -0.24 | 6-7 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 1-1 | ||
| 7 | Joey | -0.45 | 6-7 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 1-1 | ||
| 8 | Randy | -0.66 | 5-8 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 2-1 | ||
| 9 | Vinny | -1.03 | 6-7 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 0-1 | ||
| 10 | Eric | -1.17 | 7-6 | 7.3 | -0.3 | 0-2 | ||
| 11 | Stephanie | -1.33 | 5-8 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 1-2 | ||
| 12 | Brabson | -2.03 | 6-7 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 0-2 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luca | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| John | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Cody | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| Chris T | 6.5 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Max | 7.0 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Rafael | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Joey | 6.4 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Randy | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 |
| Vinny | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Eric | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Stephanie | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 |
| Brabson | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| John | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Cody | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Chris T | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Max | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Rafael | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Joey | 1 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| Randy | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Vinny | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Eric | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
| Stephanie | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
| Brabson | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Luca | 85-58 | 59.4% |
| John | 47-96 | 32.9% |
| Cody | 68-75 | 47.6% |
| Chris T | 96-47 | 67.1% |
| Max | 88-55 | 61.5% |
| Rafael | 66-77 | 46.2% |
| Joey | 73-70 | 51.0% |
| Randy | 56-87 | 39.2% |
| Vinny | 84-59 | 58.7% |
| Eric | 81-62 | 56.6% |
| Stephanie | 56-87 | 39.2% |
| Brabson | 58-85 | 40.6% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luca | 127.2 | 121.8 | Hard |
| John | 124.7 | 121.8 | Average |
| Cody | 118.3 | 121.8 | Average |
| Chris T | 129.7 | 121.8 | Hard |
| Max | 121.8 | 121.8 | Average |
| Rafael | 125.7 | 121.8 | Average |
| Joey | 124.6 | 121.8 | Average |
| Randy | 115.7 | 121.8 | Easy |
| Vinny | 126.9 | 121.8 | Hard |
| Eric | 116.1 | 121.8 | Easy |
| Stephanie | 121.8 | 121.8 | Average |
| Brabson | 108.8 | 121.8 | Easy |