LUCK FACTORANALYSIS
Measuring how luck influences team performance through Pythagorean expectation
YEAR_SELECTOR.SYS
OVERALL_LUCK_RANKINGS.DAT
| RNK | TEAM_NAME | LUCK_SCORE | RATING | ACT_W-L | EXP_W | LUCK_W | CLOSE_W-L | SCHEDULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric | +5.78 | 12-2 | 8.2 | +3.8 | 4-0 | ||
| 2 | Vinny | +4.96 | 10-4 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 4-0 | ||
| 3 | Chris T | +2.16 | 11-3 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 0-1 | ||
| 4 | Stephanie | +0.78 | 8-6 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 2-2 | ||
| 5 | Luca | +0.45 | 6-8 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 2-0 | ||
| 6 | Max | +0.05 | 8-6 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 3-4 | ||
| 7 | John | -0.54 | 5-9 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 2-1 | ||
| 8 | Rafael | -2.06 | 6-8 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 1-3 | ||
| 9 | Joey | -2.59 | 5-9 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 1-3 | ||
| 10 | Cody | -2.62 | 5-9 | 6.5 | -1.6 | 0-2 | ||
| 11 | Randy | -2.94 | 4-10 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 0-2 | ||
| 12 | Brabson | -3.18 | 4-10 | 6.7 | -2.6 | 1-2 |
PYTHAGOREAN_EXPECTATION.DAT
Compares actual wins to expected wins based on points scored and allowed
| TEAM | EXPECTED | ACTUAL | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric | 8.2 | 12 | +3.8 |
| Vinny | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Chris T | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Stephanie | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 |
| Luca | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 |
| Max | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| John | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 |
| Rafael | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 |
| Joey | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Cody | 6.5 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Randy | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Brabson | 6.7 | 4 | -2.6 |
CLOSE_GAMES_PERFORMANCE.DAT
Games decided by 10 points or less
| TEAM | CLOSE_W | CLOSE_L | WIN_% | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric | 4 | 0 | 100% | +4 |
| Vinny | 4 | 0 | 100% | +4 |
| Chris T | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 |
| Stephanie | 2 | 2 | 50% | 0 |
| Luca | 2 | 0 | 100% | +2 |
| Max | 3 | 4 | 43% | -1 |
| John | 2 | 1 | 67% | +1 |
| Rafael | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Joey | 1 | 3 | 25% | -2 |
| Cody | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
| Randy | 0 | 2 | 0% | -2 |
| Brabson | 1 | 2 | 33% | -1 |
ALL_PLAY_RECORD.DAT
How teams would perform against all opponents each week
| TEAM | RECORD | WIN_% |
|---|---|---|
| Eric | 116-27 | 81.1% |
| Vinny | 67-76 | 46.9% |
| Chris T | 101-42 | 70.6% |
| Stephanie | 68-75 | 47.6% |
| Luca | 58-85 | 40.6% |
| Max | 85-58 | 59.4% |
| John | 53-90 | 37.1% |
| Rafael | 69-74 | 48.3% |
| Joey | 76-67 | 53.1% |
| Cody | 56-87 | 39.2% |
| Randy | 48-95 | 33.6% |
| Brabson | 61-82 | 42.7% |
SCHEDULE_DIFFICULTY.DAT
Average opponent score vs league average
| TEAM | OPP_AVG | LG_AVG | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric | 123.8 | 119.5 | Average |
| Vinny | 113.9 | 119.5 | Easy |
| Chris T | 112.4 | 119.5 | Easy |
| Stephanie | 116.3 | 119.5 | Average |
| Luca | 114.8 | 119.5 | Average |
| Max | 118.9 | 119.5 | Average |
| John | 125.0 | 119.5 | Hard |
| Rafael | 114.5 | 119.5 | Easy |
| Joey | 125.4 | 119.5 | Hard |
| Cody | 124.9 | 119.5 | Hard |
| Randy | 123.0 | 119.5 | Average |
| Brabson | 121.6 | 119.5 | Average |